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Iran-Backed Terrorism Militia Groups Fuel Escalation in the Middle East
GTTAC Snapshot, August 26, 2024
Author: Arastoo Jahanafrooz

In the aftermath of killing Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, Iran and its proxy groups known as the Axis of Resistance are plotting to retaliate against Israel. In April 2024 Iran and its allies fired around 170 one-way attack drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel. The United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted the vast majority of the projectiles so that attack did significantly less damage than intended.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance have probed Israeli air defenses extensively since April 2024, possibly learning how to attack more effectively. Hezbollah and the Houthis have both conducted attacks that have successfully bypassed Israeli air defenses since April 2024. A possible scenario is that Iran and the Axis of Resistance launch a combined, large-scale drone and missile attack that incorporates lessons from earlier attempts to further strain Israeli and allied air defenses. Drones and missiles launched from Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria would be much harder to intercept than those from Iran given the shorter distances and flight times.

Iran-backed Iraqi militias appear to have resumed their campaign targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched two one-way drone attacks targeting US and coalition forces at Ain al-Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq on July 16. Similarly, the militias also fired rocket shells at US military bases in Deir Ezzor Governorate in Syria. On August 9, Iran-backed Iraqi militias conducted a drone attack targeting US forces at the Rumeilan base in Hasakah Governorate, Syria, injuring eight US service members.

In June 2024, Yemen’s Houthi rebels conducted the largest number of attacks on commercial ships, escalating tensions in the Red Sea. The Houthis have targeted more than 20 commercial ships and crude oil tankers in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden using anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, and unmanned surface vessels. Between June 1 and August 10, 2024, the Houthis along with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq have claimed responsibility for more than 30 attacks targeting north and south of Israel. The most notable example was the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv on July 19 which killed one and injured four others.